- (no subject)
- April 24th, 23:19
Cruz and Kasich just announced that they cut a deal. Cruz steps out of Kasich's way and stops campaigning in Oregon and New Mexico, and in return Kasich does the same in Indiana.
It can't hurt, I suppose, but frankly I'm pretty pessimistic.
1. Strategic voting can work. When Rubio told his voters to vote for other candidates in states where it made better sense, it made a tangible difference. But Rubio explicitly said 'Vote for Kasich in Ohio, people." I don't see Kasich doing the same in Indiana.
2. Cruz is down by about 6% in Indiana, currently. With a concerted push and his organizational black magic it's conceivable that he can squeak out a victory there a week from now. But the last poll has him down by 15% in California. On the one hand that's still 7 weeks away, which is a damn eternity in politics. On the other hand, I can't think of the last time he turned around a double-digit deficit in a deep blue state.*
One of the dynamics of this primary has been that the Republicans in the deeply Democratic states tend to favor Trump more. It's not uniform of course, but in places like Massachusetts or New York, the GOP organization has been marginalized for so long and tends to be so broken that it's full primarily of rageaholics who just want to lash out at something/anything, so they can feel like winners for a change. Not the type of voters or party activists who can or want to stop Trump. He's their candidate. The loser's idea of a winner.